There are three characteristics in which megatrends differ from other trends: The term “Megatrends” was coined by John Naisbitt, who, 25 years ago, publis-. Megatrends: Ten New Directions. Transforming Our Lives. John Naisbitt. New York: Warner Books,. , pp, $ Reviewed by: Earl J. Ogletree. John Naisbitt - Megatrends - Ebook download as Word Doc .doc), PDF File .pdf) , Text File .txt) or read book online. megatrendovi.
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by John Naisbitt. The paragraphs below are from Megatrends-Ten permission of Naisbitt and Warner Books. John Naisbitt, the well-known social forecaster. John Naisbitt is an American author and public speaker in the area of futures studies. His first book Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives was . Print/export. Create a book · Download as PDF · Printable version. John Naisbitt, who earned his for tune-telling reputation with his prescient best- seller. Megatrends, recently completed a book with the working title "Millennium.
Tai Dam, Asian tribesmen have set- tled in Iowa. Megatrends Asia by.
In Asia and the Pacific. Megatrends shaping the future of global higher Students from Asia form the largest group of international students enrolled in OECD tertiary education John Naisbitt, The fourth Asian megatrend is from government-controlled to market-driven.
The first was the shift in economic power toward Asia. John Naisbitt coined the word megatrends in his book of the same name Megatrends as perceived in Turkey in comparison to Naisbitt Group's content analysis of 2 million local newspaper articles Nachmias, D. Global Insight Freight Transportation Megatrends ; Pada tahun , John Naisbitt menerbitkan buku lagi Contoh untuk Asia , Korea Selatan yang semula.
John Naisbitt's books on mega trend analysis includes: Megatrends , Horyzonty Polityki - cejsh ; Megatrends and their Implications in the Globalised World and explicitly John Naisbitt was one of the first authors who Ejdys, J.
Bright Futures Megatrends impacting the mental wellbeing Naisbitt, John and Naisbitt, Doris. Megatrends Asia: John Naisbitt: site. The author of Megatrends reveals the explosive changes currently taking Thanks are due also to my Warner Books editor, Nansey Neiman, a real professional with Over the past John Naisbitt, an experienced social forecaster, speaker All ten megatrends result from.
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America's shift List of futurologists - Wikipedia ; "Futurology" as a term was coined in the twentieth century. What counts under that term has changed over time, as such this list is a jumble, and is intended to be suggestive, not definitive.
Read The Book. For the past fifteen years, I have been working with major American corporations to try to understand what is really happening in the United States by monitoring local events and behavior, because collectively what is going on locally is what is going on in America.
Despite the conceits of New York and Washington, almost nothing starts there. In the course of my work, I have been overwhelmingly: Many other magazines, newspsy or Washington, books followed and the debate ersvadied this great country by Now there iciibwspapers.
We have discovered that trends are generated from the bottom up, fads from the top down. The findings in this book are based on an analysis of more. Introduction I xxvii with new concerns about the environment. Why are we so confident that content analysis is an effective way to monitor social change? Simply stated. AH of this is reflected in the collective news hole that becomes a mechanical representation of society sorting out its priorities.
For example. If new problems or concerns are introduced. In this forced-choice situation.
Under the leadership of Paul Lazarsfeld and Harold Lasswell. The Naisbitt Group is the first. You cannot add unless you subtract. There was extensive reaction to the Santa Barbara oil spills.
The strain on Germany's people. It is the principle of forced choice in a closed system. Over time. In keeping track of the ones that are added and the ones that are given up. In fact. Out of such highly localized data bases.
Students in California buried. I have watched the general outlines of a new society slowly emerge. The news-reporting process is forced choice in a closed system. Trends ore bottom-up. Impressed by what we learned. Over the years. We were able to get a good idea of German military casualties by adding up these local listings.
During that war. About a dozen years ago. A person can keep only so many problems and concerns in his or her head or heart at any one time. Our group collects information about what's going on locally across the country and then looks for patterns. One yielded as the other gained.
Concern about age discrimination has since been declining. If all the local news space devoted to drug use and abuse during the year were equated to During the s almost all of the space devoted to what could be described as concerns about discrimination was filled with concerns about racism. There is a certain amount of choice over which stories will appear in the paper.
Florida is second. A sports analogy is useful here. The methodology we have developed is also free from the effects of biased reporting because it is only the event or behavior itself that we are interested in. What issue?
It was not a combination of things. As anyone who has worked on a newspaper knows. This process of forced choice in a closed system is a very trustworthy process for the purposes of our studies. In our work. Not surprisingly. During the past decade. I have a high degree of confidence that that occurred. Starting hi both subjects began to yield to concerns about ageism until two-thuds of the discrimination space was filled with material about ageism. The other forty-five are in effect followers.
At that point. By the system showed a crossover and the environmental became. But if the sports reporter tells me in the fourth paragraph that Steve Garvey's bone-headed play in the sixth inning blew the whole game. The results can be fascinating. Congress acted at the crest. Earth Day was followed by Earth Day n.
California is the key indicator state. The amount of space devoted to the environment accelerated dramatically. As the column inches of environmental hews increased. The zoning board changed a rule by a vote of 6 to 3. If I read in the box score that Steve Henderson went 2 for 5. New York has already followed with a similar statute. Now that trend has spread across the nation. Proposition 13 in California was really a subset of a larger trend toward citizen-initiated referenda.
The whole granola ethic started there: It's difficult to say why. The court said employees without a specific contract can't be dismissed for complaining about a company practice that violates state law or creates a public hazard. With Florida. Florida is becoming increasingly important as a bellwether state and may soon surpass California.
It passed the nation's first workers' right-to-know law. Now Connecticut is setting the trend in the workplace. That sudden occurrence in three trend-setting states encouraged us to predict a national trend. Washington's largest city. Colorado passed laws limiting growth? Connecticut was the first to eliminate monthly minimum utility charges for poverty-level customers. This is part of the accountability trend moving across the whole country. In Florida had the nation's oldest population and Floridians experienced growing tension between the state's older and younger residents.
Along with Florida and California both of which acted within a two-month period in Connecticut was a leader in requiring minimum competency standards for high school graduates. This conflict is especially noteworthy. The reason is demographics. And the richness of the mix always results in creativity. Florida was also the first state to adopt guidelines governing time sharing. Colorado initiated "sunset laws" that closed down new agencies unless legislatures explicitly renewed them. The Connecticut Supreme Court.
I have noted it in the back of the book. I learned that the "high touch" of the traditional tea ceremony and of flower arranging were making a big comeback in Japan. Introduction I xxxi Partly because of that. This book has been popular in Japan because the Japanese are extraordinarily interested in the United States.
When I was there in mid I suggested that. Edison Electric Institute. As described in chapter 3. Atlantic Richfield. What the Trend Report research provides me is a framework into which I mentally sort all of the other information I come across. Trend Reports Our findings are published quarterly in a national Trend Report and in regional reports. Three times each year we hold seminars for our clients..
That 2. I have read thousands of other newspaper. Daily exposure to the ebb and flow of local action in cities and towns across the United States enables staff analysis to pinpoint. I have slowly developed what to me is a clear sense of the directions in which we are restructuring America. After a dozen years of carefully monitoring local events in this way.
I do not mean to suggest that every idea and every bit of information contained in this book came out of the pages of the Trend Report.
One day others may speak of us as U. At Sumitomo Life Insurance Co. After a flurry of interest in desk-top and pocket calculators. In my lectures. Merrill Lynch. General Motors. Japan is absorbing a tremendous amount of technology in a very short time. The Trend Report staff continually monitors 6. Other Developed Countries Almost everything I have written about the United States applies to one degree or another to all developed countries.
Among our longtime clients.
Security Pacific National Bank. At the seminars we discuss the emerging trends and their impact on business and on our lives. While I was in Japan. Megatrends has been a bestseller in every country where it has been published?
General Electric. By carefully watching what is happening now in Florida. The information society had its beginnings in and But trends. The decisions are up to you. In I think. When you make a decision that is compatible with the overarching trend. You may decide to buck the trend. Trends tell you the direction the country is moving in. And we can change that framework as the world Itself changes. To do that. Eisenhower was reelected president.
And William H. I say this because of my experience in talking about this megatrend with people all across America. The ten megatrends discussed in this book will affect your life and your business. With a simple framework we can begin to make sense of the world. None is more subtle. This is a book of synthesis in an age of analysis. It always surprises me that so many people passionately resist the notion of an economy built on information and.
It is not a new idea. My purpose is to offer readers a new context within which to sort out and assess today's events. I mink this depth of feeling represents our collective unwillingness to say good-bye to a magnificent era. Its purpose is to provide an overview. In their way. I risk displeasing the experts and subject specialists who can argue that to take the leap of describing the world in terms of ten shifting categories is too simplistic.
This book describes the environment in which to consider the decisions of life: Transatlantic cable telephone service was inaugurated. Whyte published The Organization Man? I am not.
Megatrends 2000 : ten new directions for the 1990's
I think it is worth the risk. We always name eras and movements "post" or "neo" when we don't know what to call them. But what has not ibeen stressed enough is the way the satellites transformed the earth into what Marshall McLuhan called a global village.
Like the nine other basic shifts discussed in this book. For our lifetime. The space shuttle has a lot more to do with the globalized information economy than it will ever have to do? The real importance of Sputnik is not that it began the space age. Instead of turning us outward toward space.
But the new shuttle can launch larger satellites that incorporate ground station functions? But we have to release this deathgrip on the past and deal with the future. Satellites hove turned the earth inward. We need to reconceptualize our national and global objectives to fit the new economics of information. Today's information technology? Harvard sociologist Daniel Bell termed it the post-industrial society and the name stuck.
In the past. The problem is that our thinking. Without an appreciation of the larger shifts that are restructuring our society. Out of touch with the present. The following year? The Russians launched Sputnik. Today's shuttle can orbit a It makes no sense. McLuhan saw television as the instrument that would bring about the global village. It is now clear that the post-industrial society is the information.
Today's sophisticated technology only hastens our plunge into the information society that is already here. It was already well under way by the late s. We must understand this new information society and the changes it brings. Professional workers are almost all information workers? Birch of MIT reports that. The difference is that for professional and clerical workers.
Megatrends Asia: Eight Asian Megatrends That Are Reshaping Our World
In the approximately 7. The real increase has been in information occupations. It is important to acknowledge the kind of work we do? At first glance. That's a brief history of the United States. Most Americans spend their time creating.
Again and again. Daniel Bell was one of the earliest. The occupational history of the United States tells a lot about us. In any case. And many more workers hold information jobs within manufacturing companies.
Industrial workers. The demand for professional workers has gained substantially since Now more than 65 percent of us work with information as programmers. David L. With most of us no longer manufacturing goods. The second largest classification after clerk is professional.
And we continue to speak of services. Bell's post-industrial society was misunderstood.
Of course. The overwhelming majority of service workers are actually engaged in the creation. The so-called service sector minus the information or knowledge workers has remained a fairly steady 11 or 12 percent since The character of service jobs has changed?
But a careful look at the so-called service occupations tells a different story. By that group had more than doubled to The creation of the now well-known Intel Corporation is a good example of this.
We are now in such a period. How many of those were jobs in the Fortune 1. During a seven-year period ending in But 6 -. It can be created. Fairchild Semiconductor. Notes Peter Drucker. Noyce is credited with being the coinventor of the integrated circuit and Intel with developing the microprocessor. But in our new society. Knowledge has already become the primary industry.
Not the only resource. Intel was formed in when Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore split off from their former employer. That is the most important reason for the current entrepreneurial explosion in the United States.
In we were creating new businesses at the rate of The remaining 3 million went to work for state and local. The entrepreneurs who are creating new businesses are also creating jobs for the rest of us. To use I an industrial metaphor. I The new source of power is not money in the hands of f a few but information in the hands of many. With information as the strategic resource.
With the new information society. Almost 90 percent.
While the shift from an agricultural to an industrial society took years. This is one of the reasons we are so interested in it. But mere is one important difference. Get it out. Department of Commerce.
Change is occurring so rapidly mat there is no time to react. Farmers learned from the past how to plant. We need to create a knowledge theory of value to replace Marx's obsolete labor theory oi value. We have just to look at one of our major exports to realize the value of knowledge. In a day of shrinking U. The time orientation in an industrial society is now. We must now learn from the present how to anticipate the future. In our agricultural period.
When we can do that. As Birch says. Denison concluded that about two-thirds of the economic growth came about because of the increased size and education of the workforce and the greater pool of knowledge available to workers. This change in time orientation accounts for the growing popular and. In an information economy. American companies have little trouble selling their know-how.
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In our new information society. Edward Denison. In an information society. An economist with the U. New information technologies will at first be applied to old industrial tasks. In this literacy-intensive society. In an information society? Their number is expected to double by The information society is an economic reality.
This increases personal transactions geometrically. Bureau of Labor Statistics. According to a report by the U. In the school year there were almost Membership in the World fiiture Society grew from in to well over Innovations in communications and computer technology will accelerate the pace of change by collapsing the information float. The technology of the new information age is not absolute.
During our agricultural period. How much of the nation's wealth is actually produced in the information sector? How many of us earn a living in information jobs? Without answers to these questions. We will dismiss the information economy as ephemeral paperwork existing only as an adjunct to goods-producing sectors. The bad news is that there is no end to lawyers and lawyering. Lawyers core like heaven: They get in the mainstream and dam it up. This is one basic reason why we are bound to continue to be a litigious-intensive society: Some of the greatly increasing personal transactions will undoubtedly go sour.
An industrial society pits man against fabricated nature. By It is quite possible for a single country to be in various states of agricultural.
The ABA says there will be a million lawyers in America by the mids. David Birch's more recent finding that only 5 percent of the almost 20 million new jobs created in the s were in manufacturing almost 90 percent were in information. This was in But Porat's study goes on to deal with the more difficult questions that have overwhelmed other researchers. Marc Porat.
Porat's study concludes. Included here are computer manufacturing. Documenting the information economy is difficult. According to Porat's calculations for the year Pinpointing the economics of the creation. The Secondary Information Sector generated an additional Under the sponsorship of the U. Porat is unwilling to estimate how much the information economy has grown since. Porat sorted through some occupations in industries.
In effect their information products are sold on a fictitious account to the goods-producing side of the company.
How does one categorize those individuals holding information jobs with manufacturers and other noninformation firths? To answer this question required "tearing firms apart in an accounting sense into information and non-information parts. He begins with the obvious sorting-out and tallying-up of the economic value of easily identifiable information jobs such as clerks. It quantifies the economic contri. Porat's study is incredibly detailed.
These workers produce information goods and services for internal consumption within goods-producing and other companies. Questionable jobs were excluded so mat the study's conclusions err on the conservative side. Porat painstakingly dissected the nation's economy and established criteria for labeling a job or part of a job and its income as part of the information sector or the goods-producing sector.
The net effect is a faster flow of information j: The city lost Health administrators grew at an astounding percent. General Electric Company promptly decided to build a new plant nearby. In simple? Collapsing he Information Float The pace of change will accelerate even more as communications technology collapses the information float.
If you respond to my electronic letter within an hour. Almost all of the people in these companies and industries spend their time processing information in one way or another and generating value that is downloadd in domestic and global markets.
The life channel of the information age is communication. The Regional Planning Association estimates that more than half of New York's gross city product is now generated by people who work in information.
If I send you a letter electronically. In contrast. Any changes that are. New York City. The key strategy is to offer more incentives to high-tech information companies: In North Carolina invested millions in a new microelectronics research center. Today's information companies have emerged as some of the nation's largest. If I mail a letter to you. Other information companies include IBM. And those rewards will be ample. The Minnesota legislature is financing the expansion of the University of Minnesota's microelectronics facility in order to attract more high-tech information firms.
New York is experiencing a boom in information jobs. We have for the first time an economy based on a key resource that is not only renewable.
Scientific and technical information now increases 13 percent per year. With the coming o! When President Reagan was shot. This new integrated communication system will fuel the information society the way energy? The combined technologies of the telephone. For example: Between 6. Uncontrolled and unorganized information is no longer a resource in an information society.
To the benefit of both sender and receiver. But the rate will soon jump to perhaps 40 percent per year because of new. But most importantly. Running out of it is not a problem. By the volume of information will be somewhere We ore drowning in information but starred for knowledge.There is a certain amount of choice over which stories will appear in the paper, but not much. The strain on Germany's people, industry, and economy began to show up in its newspapers, even though information about the country's supplies, production, transportation, and food situation remained secret.
And lastly, and most importantly, this book is dedicated to my beautiful wife, Patricia Aburdene, without whom it would never have been written. It makes no sense, for instance, to reindustrialize an economy that is based not on industry, but on the production and distribution of information.
Who could object? The automobile industry is well on the way to becoming the first globalized industry.